Swiss Franc remains near 16-month lows against US Dollar
- USD/CHF edges lower after reaching a nearly 16-month high of 0.8263 on Wednesday.
- Fed Chair Warsh cited high inflation, with markets pricing a 49.8% probability of an October rate increase.
- Rabobank notes markets expect little risk of a Swiss National Bank rate hike this year, unlike other central banks.
USD/CHF inches lower after reaching nearly 16-month highs the previous day, trading around 0.8250 during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, the pair may rebound its ground as the US Dollar (USD) may appreciate further due to the potential for further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
The Greenback remains on a firm footing following an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), alongside signals that another increase could follow before the end of the year. The central bank raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%. The move matched market expectations, representing the Fed's first interest rate increase in three years.
In his post-meeting remarks, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explained that the rate hike was driven by inflation remaining "too high" and lingering "for too long," describing the action as a "sober" and "responsible decision." Warsh signaled that further rate increases remain on the table in an effort to curb persistent price pressures. Following the announcements, money markets priced in roughly a 49.8% probability of another Fed rate hike at the October meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Franc faces tug-of-war between funding currency role and safe haven demand
Rabobank’s FX strategists note that, “counter to many other G10 central banks, the market sees little risk of a SNB rate hike this year.” With the SNB policy rate still “at zero,” they argue this “raises the prospect of the CHF adopting funding currency status,” as investors look for low-yielding currencies to finance carry trades. However, Rabobank cautions that the market “would have to square this with the prospect that the CHF could see a surge in long positions if market anxieties rise,” underscoring that the Franc’s traditional safe haven appeal could quickly reassert itself in periods of heightened risk.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.